Alright, buckle up, because this is a conversation that’s been brewing for years—decades, even. European leaders are, once again, caught in a familiar panic: What happens if the U.S. decides to pull back its military presence on the continent? And with President Trump back in the White House, that question has turned from a hypothetical into a near-constant source of anxiety in European capitals.
Now, let’s be clear—this isn’t just about troop numbers. It’s about a fundamental shift in how security in Europe is managed. For decades, European nations have leaned heavily on American military power to keep stability in the region, particularly as tensions with Russia have escalated. But the reality is, the U.S. has been signaling for years that it expects Europe to take on more of its own security burden. And under Trump, that message is getting louder.
Camille Grand, a former NATO official, put it bluntly: Europe is trying to address its military readiness problem, but these things don’t happen overnight. If Trump were to announce tomorrow that he’s pulling troops out of Germany, that’s not just a logistical headache—it’s a geopolitical earthquake.
The numbers paint a clear picture. At its peak during the Cold War, the U.S. had nearly half a million troops stationed in Europe. That number has steadily declined since the 1990s, and while Biden’s administration temporarily increased the U.S. military presence in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, those deployments were never meant to be permanent. Right now, the troop count fluctuates between 75,000 and 105,000—a fraction of what it once was.
But here’s where things get tricky. European leaders aren’t just worried about losing American boots on the ground; they’re worried about what that signals. Trump’s foreign policy approach has always been transactional—he doesn’t see NATO as a sacred obligation but rather as a deal, one where both sides need to pull their weight. And if he thinks European nations aren’t spending enough on their own defense, well, the writing’s on the wall.
European leaders on edge as prospect looms of Trump pulling 20K troops from continent. As a American, I would not mind seeing our 20,000 truth come back home. The EU wants to be cold/combative with us? Then they really do need to stand on their own. https://t.co/36DZpsmK7F
— Barbara (@MissZena2009) March 3, 2025
Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference didn’t help ease concerns. He called out European leaders for what he sees as a drift away from shared values like free speech, and that’s just one of the ways the U.S.-Europe relationship under Trump is looking rockier than ever. Meanwhile, Trump’s relationship with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy remains frosty, which has only added fuel to speculation that American support for Ukraine could be scaled back.
But let’s take a step back. Even before Trump, both Democratic and Republican administrations have been pushing Europe to become more self-reliant in its defense strategy. The strategic shift toward the Indo-Pacific—where China is the rising concern—has been in motion for years. Trump’s return to power might accelerate troop withdrawals, but it’s not rewriting the broader trajectory.
So where does this leave Europe? Scrambling. European leaders know they need to shore up their own defenses, but they also know they aren’t quite ready yet. The big question now isn’t whether Trump will reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe—it’s how fast and how deep those cuts will go. And for European leaders, that uncertainty is the real problem.
