California is gearing up for a highly contested Senate race, with Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff emerging as the top two candidates in Tuesday’s primary. According to the latest data from surveys released by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California Berkeley, Garvey and Schiff are in a statistical tie, with Garvey taking 27 percent of the vote and Schiff earning 25 percent. Rep. Katie Porter trails behind with 19 percent of the vote, and Rep. Barbara Lee is in last place at 8 percent.
In California’s nonpartisan primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation. This means that the November election will be a face-off between Schiff and Garvey as they vie to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. However, this also means California will have a senator who is not a woman for the first time in over three decades.
Both Schiff and Garvey are running for a full term in the Senate starting in January 2025 and a partial term beginning this November and ending in January 2025. The Berkeley IGS survey indicates a “large increase” in support for Garvey over the past few weeks, particularly in the partial-term race. Garvey leads in the partial-term race with 29 percent, followed by Schiff with 23 percent and Porter with 20 percent. According to the survey, this is due to fewer Republican names on the partial-term ballot than the full-term ballot.
The California Senate race is significant because it will determine who replaces Feinstein and gives the Republican party a rare opportunity to compete in a high-profile statewide race in a heavily Democratic state. California puts all candidates on the same primary ballot regardless of party, and the top two advance to the general election. The Republican party has had little success in the state recently, with a Democratic candidate winning every Senate race since 1988. Republicans failed to advance a single candidate to the general election in two of California’s last three U.S. Senate races.
HAPPENING NOW: Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff is in a statistical tie with former MLB star and Republican challenger Steve Garvey to fill Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat.
Do something right for once, California.
Garvey was a longtime LA Dodgers first baseman and Californians seem to… pic.twitter.com/QPLFZL74SQ
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 5, 2024
Schiff and Garvey’s advancement to the general election is a watershed moment in California politics, which veteran politicians like Feinstein have long dominated. It also puts the dynamic between Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter in sharp relief as both Democrat lawmakers jockeyed for a coveted general election spot.
Garvey, a former Major League MVP who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, celebrated with enthusiastic supporters in Palm Desert, his hometown. In his remarks, he warned Schiff not to underestimate him despite the state’s Democratic leanings. Garvey pledged to run a campaign that would appeal across party lines, focusing on topical issues like inflation, the homelessness crisis, and rising city crime rates.
“They say in the general election that we’re going to strike out,” Garvey said at his victory party. “Know this: It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”
Schiff’s victory party was marred by chaos when protesters loudly interrupted his remarks. Protesters shouted “Free Palestine” and “Cease fire now,” forcing the congressman to speak over them. Schiff attempted to take several pauses in his speech, and he appeared to rush through his remarks as the protesters continued to make noise. Schiff has been vocal in his support for Israel’s right to defend itself, but he changed course on Tuesday and endorsed the Biden administration’s call for a Gaza cease-fire. The disruption at the victory party serves as a reminder that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could be a contentious issue in the general election.
Garvey, a political novice, owes a large part of his victory to Schiff and friendly super PACs that spent millions of dollars slamming Schiff and boosting his conservative credentials. The Berkeley IGS survey indicates Garvey’s support is concentrated among older voters and Republicans. However, California’s electorate is predominantly registered as Democratic, and voter turnout in the primary has been low, particularly among younger voters.
The orders to determine who wins the general election after the primary are still in the air. In 2016, the most recent open U.S. Senate contest from California, 2 million more voters went to the surveys in November than in the primary. The state GOP spent over two decades in a tailspin, and no Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate has been able to defeat a Democratic opponent since 1988. However, Garvey sees himself as different from traditional Republican politicians and plans to run as a “conservative moderate.” He has clarified that he should not be pigeonholed into labels such as former President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again political movement.
Garvey has had to fight against the resurfacing of unflattering details about his personal life during the campaign period. This includes two births with women he wasn’t married to, which contradicts the wholesome image of a clean-cut baseball player he cultivated during his playing days. His personal life notwithstanding, he is confident about his chances in the general election. He believes he can connect with voters on both sides of the aisle, especially in his home state of California. The general election in November will ultimately determine who fills Feinstein’s seat in the Senate, and both candidates are expected to campaign aggressively for votes in the coming months.
